US Stocks Tumble, Chinese Assets Rally, Bitcoin Skyrockets!

On November 15, 2023, trading on Wall Street concluded on a somber note as all three major stock indices experienced declines, reflecting broader worries in the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.7%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.32%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid over 400 points for a total drop of 2.24%. Over the week, the scenario was quite similar as the Dow dipped by 1.24%, the S&P 500 fell by 2.08%, and the Nasdaq tumbled by 3.15%. These figures signified the steepest single-week drops for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since early September and the largest weekly decline for the Dow since late October.

A closer look at the high-profile tech sector reveals that the majority of the renowned “Magnificent Seven”—a moniker for the largest tech giants—suffered losses. The index tracking these key players fell by 2.46%, with Amazon dropping more than 4%, followed closely by Meta (formerly Facebook) down 4%, and Nvidia decreasing by over 3%. Microsoft saw a loss exceeding 2%, while both Google and Apple declined by over 1%. Interestingly, amidst these declines, Tesla managed to gain more than 3%.

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The semiconductor sector didn’t fare any better, demonstrating a weakened performance overall. Applied Materials, a leader in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, saw its shares plunge over 9% as the company projected first-quarter revenue of between $6.75 billion and $7.55 billion, falling short of analysts' expectations which were centered around $7.22 billion. This indicated a rather sluggish demand for chip manufacturing equipment. Other players like ASML and Microchip Technology dropped over 4%, while Broadcom fell by more than 3%, and AMD, Qualcomm, and Intel also faced declines that exceeded 2%.

In contrast, Chinese-listed companies saw a bit of a silver lining with most of them rising. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw an uptick of 0.82%. Among the popular Chinese stocks, Kingsoft Cloud surged over 8%, JD.com increased nearly 5%, and Miniso along with Li Auto both saw gains over 2%. NIO and New Oriental also managed slight upticks above 1%, although Alibaba and iQIYI encountered losses exceeding 2%, and Bilibili and Zhihu fell by more than 1%.

In terms of market sentiment, the release of October retail sales data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell influenced traders' expectations, adjusting the probability of a rate cut in December to about 50%. This adjustment was reflective of a broader concern over economic indicators.

October's retail sales figures, often dubbed “the horror data” due to their unpredictable nature, increased by 0.4% month-over-month, beating the anticipated 0.3%, while prior value revisions improved from 0.4% growth to 0.8%. Core retail sales for the same month rose by 0.1%, falling short of the expected 0.3% and previously adjusted from 0.5% growth to 1.0%. Investing expert Scott Helfstein from Global X noted that for the Federal Reserve and investors, this retail data might offer more actionable insights than Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement.

The release of these revised figures and Powell's earlier remarks suggesting that the Fed is in no rush to lower rates altered traders’ expectations considerably, dampening investor optimism and placing additional pressure on the stock market.

The anticipated probabilities surrounding a potential interest rate cut at the upcoming December Federal Reserve policy meeting have receded somewhat. Utilizing the CME’s FedWatch Tool, analysts note that expectations for a 25 basis point decrease have fallen to approximately 60%, a significant decline from the 82.5% predicted just before Powell’s Thursday remarks. By contrast, expectations for maintaining current rates have surged to nearly 40%, up around 20 percentage points from the previous day.

Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins acknowledged the prospect for the central bank to ease policy in December, indicating that the economy is performing well enough that modest easing could be timely. She did note, however, that there are currently no visible new signs of inflationary pressure, although tariffs might evolve into future inflation drivers.

As for cryptocurrencies, by the close of trading on November 15 in New York, the CME Bitcoin futures for its leading contract stood at $92,260, marking a 4.78% increase from Thursday’s close, and bringing this week's total gain to 19.26%. Bitcoin had touched a peak of $94,065 on November 14. In the past week, the price of spot Bitcoin experienced a notable rise of about 19.28%, currently reported at $91,287.38, with a historical high of $93,462.17 also reached on November 14. CME's Ethereum futures contract closed at $3,110, reflecting a slight 0.61% drop from Thursday, although it accumulated a 4.86% increase for the week after hitting $3,483.50 on November 12.

According to global asset market ranking by CompaniesMarketCap, gold retains its status as the most valuable asset in the world with a market capitalization of $17.20 trillion, while Bitcoin has reached a total market cap of $1.75 trillion (approximately 12.67 trillion yuan), surpassing silver and positioning itself as the eighth largest asset globally.

Data from Coinglass, a cryptocurrency derivatives analytics platform, revealed that since November began, around 200,000 traders have succumbed to liquidation daily, with the total amount liquidated approaching $500 million.

It is important to recognize the remarkable trajectory of Bitcoin since its inception in 2008 and its initial foray into the market in early 2009. The cryptocurrency has transitioned from its early value of mere cents to a staggering value in the tens of thousands of dollars, reflecting an astonishing market evolution that continues to leave investors in awe.

Experts in cryptocurrency trading emphasize the high volatility of Bitcoin as an asset, with prices significantly influenced by global economic conditions, policy shifts, and market demand. Thus, investors engaging in Bitcoin trading must exercise caution, remain alert to market dynamics, and implement stringent risk management practices to navigate this unpredictable landscape.

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